Three men — conveniently named A, B, and C — are fighting a duel with pistols. It's A's turn to shoot.
The rules of this duel are rather peculiar: the duelists do not all shoot simultaneously, but instead take turns. A fires at B, B fires at C, and C fires at A; the cycle repeats until there is a single survivor. If you hit your target, you'll fire at the next person on your next turn.
For example, A might shoot and hit B. With B out of the picture, it would be C's turn to shoot — suppose he misses. Now it's A's turn again, and he fires at C; if he hits, the duel is over, with A the sole survivor.
To bring in a little probability, suppose A and C each hit their targets with probability 0.5, but that B is a better shot, and hits with probability 0.75 — all shots are independent.
What's the probability that A wins the duel?
