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Should you choose the second box, or should you stick to your first choice to maximize the expected amount of money?

+1 vote
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Someone shows you two boxes and he tells you that one of these boxes contains two times as much as the other one, but he does not tell you which one this is. He lets you choose one of these boxes, and opens it. It turns out to be filled with $10. Now he gives you the opportunity to choose the other box instead of the current one (and skip the $10 of the first box), because the second box could contain twice as much (i.e. $20).

Should you choose the second box, or should you stick to your first choice to maximize the expected amount of money?

posted Jun 30, 2014 by Aarati Mahajan

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1 Answer

0 votes

It's purely 50/50 chance. It can either be 5 or 20$ next
hence, there is no correct answer according to math.
now for a practical apporach. It depends on the individual, situation and the kind of game.

  • If the individual tents to be risk taking enjoys gamble anytime, already having a hell good time with the suspense being built and ladies going around opening the box and all lightings and show. chances are that he/she goes for next box ignoring anything.

  • If the situation is such that, you are given a free ride reaching this game venue and free full day entertainment no expense from your pocket, chances are more you can just bet anything and take the minimum 5$ assured chance, and gamble for next box

  • If you have already spend 4$ to reach the venue and would need 4 more $ to go back and u didnt enjoy the game and studio and was all time sweating to get the show over somehow go home.. you will just stop it take the 10$ go home and save 2$.

answer Jun 30, 2014 by Rakesh



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